Dallas Stars at New York Islanders
New York Islanders 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Islanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Islanders rest advantage (2 days rest) over Stars (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYI 54% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NYI 56% (−2)
Win probability movement
NYI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Islanders defeated the Stars 2-1.
Our model predicted the Islanders would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders rest advantage (2 days rest) over Stars (1 day rest)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Islanders won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- Rest DaysFavors New York Islanders
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Stars
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 58% win probability, while Stars has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY.