NHL2026-27 season
Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Head-to-head win probability for NHL. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Tue, Apr 7, 2026
This season
2026-27 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
No 2026-27 meetings yet.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
—
No decided games this season
Meetings graded
0
2026-27
Correct calls
0
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Ottawa Senators
- Home Field Advantage — Senators are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days — Senators rest advantage (2 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive Efficiency — Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Senators (3.2 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form — Lightning (38-18) in better form than Senators (30-22)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.