Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Lightning 6-2.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators rest advantage (2 days rest) over Lightning (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Senators (3.2 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won by a solid margin
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Lightning
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 54% win probability, while Lightning has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.