Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames
Tampa Bay Lightning 52% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Offensive Efficiency. Lightning offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Recent Form. Lightning (38-18) in better form than Flames (24-30)
- Defensive Efficiency. Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Flames (3.0 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 55% (+3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 48% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 49% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 50% (−2)
Win probability movement
CGY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flames defeated the Lightning 4-3.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 52% confidence, but the Flames won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Flames and was a notable factor: Flames are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (38-18) in better form than Flames (24-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flames won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Calgary Flames
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 48% win probability, while Lightning has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.