Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flames defeated the Lightning 4-3.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 52% confidence, but the Flames pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Flames and was a notable factor: Flames are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (38-18) in better form than Flames (24-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flames won in a close game
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Flames
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Flames has a 48% win probability, while Lightning has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.