Washington Capitals at Utah Utah Hockey Club
Utah Utah Hockey Club 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Utah Hockey Club:
- Home Field Advantage. Utah Hockey Club are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: UTA 51% (−5)
- If the rest edge were neutral: UTA 57% (+1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: UTA 54% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: UTA 55% (−1)
Win probability movement
UTA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Capitals defeated the Utah Hockey Club 7-4.
Our model predicted the Utah Hockey Club would win with 56% confidence, but the Capitals won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Utah Hockey Club and was a notable factor: Utah Hockey Club are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days favored the Capitals and was a contributing factor: Capitals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Utah Hockey Club (1 day rest)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (2.7 vs 2.9 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Capitals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Utah Hockey Club
- Rest DaysFavors Washington Capitals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Capitals
Utah Hockey Club
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Utah Hockey Club has a 56% win probability, while Capitals has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.