Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Rest Days. Lightning rest advantage (1 day rest) over Predators (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Predators (3.4 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: TBL 61% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 64% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 65% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 65% (−4)
Win probability movement
TBL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Predators 3-2.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 69% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Lightning and was a major factor: Lightning rest advantage (1 day rest) over Predators (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Predators (3.4 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Lightning rest advantage (1 day rest) over Predators (back-to-back)
1 factor
Key Players
Predators
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 69% win probability, while Predators has a 31% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL.