Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Ducks:
- Recent Form. Ducks (35-24) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
- Offensive Efficiency. Ducks offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Canucks (2.6 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ANA 54% (+3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ANA 48% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 48% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 50% (−1)
Win probability movement
VAN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Ducks defeated the Canucks 5-3.
Our model predicted the Ducks would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canucks and was a contributing factor: Canucks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Ducks (35-24) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Ducks offense (3.3 PPG) outpaces Canucks (2.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Ducks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vancouver Canucks
- Recent FormFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Ducks
Canucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canucks has a 49% win probability, while Ducks has a 51% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC.