NBA report card: week of 2026-03-16 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
72.2%
hit rate
0.180
Brier score
39 of 54 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Bucks at SunsPHX 79.7% pre-game — final PHX 105–MIL 108
- Trail Blazers at TimberwolvesMIN 77.8% pre-game — final MIN 104–POR 108
- Nuggets at GrizzliesDEN 73.3% pre-game — final MEM 125–DEN 118
- Lakers at RocketsHOU 68.3% pre-game — final HOU 92–LAL 100
- Lakers at RocketsHOU 67.0% pre-game — final HOU 116–LAL 124
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Pacers at SpursSAS 90.0% pre-game — final SAS 134–IND 119
- Pacers at KnicksNYK 90.0% pre-game — final NYK 136–IND 110
- Thunder at NetsOKC 88.9% pre-game — final BKN 92–OKC 121
- Spurs at KingsSAS 88.2% pre-game — final SAC 104–SAS 132
- Knicks at NetsNYK 86.0% pre-game — final BKN 92–NYK 93
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors at Knicks Mon, Mar 16 | NYK 77.5% · GSW 22.5% | NYK 110–GSW 107 | Hit |
| Jazz at Kings Mon, Mar 16 | SAC 47.7% · UTA 52.3% | SAC 116–UTA 111 | Miss |
| Warriors at Wizards Mon, Mar 16 | WSH 56.3% · GSW 43.7% | WSH 117–GSW 125 | Miss |
| Magic at Hawks Mon, Mar 16 | ATL 53.9% · ORL 46.1% | ATL 124–ORL 112 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Nets Mon, Mar 16 | BKN 37.2% · POR 62.8% | BKN 95–POR 114 | Hit |
| Suns at Celtics Mon, Mar 16 | BOS 78.0% · PHX 22.0% | BOS 120–PHX 112 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Pelicans Tue, Mar 17 | NOP 58.2% · DAL 41.8% | NOP 129–DAL 111 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Bulls Tue, Mar 17 | CHI 49.8% · MEM 50.2% | CHI 132–MEM 107 | Miss |
| Lakers at Rockets Tue, Mar 17 | HOU 68.3% · LAL 31.7% | HOU 92–LAL 100 | Miss |
| Spurs at Clippers Tue, Mar 17 | LAC 28.8% · SAS 71.2% | LAC 115–SAS 119 | Hit |
| Pistons at Wizards Tue, Mar 17 | WSH 56.3% · DET 43.7% | WSH 117–DET 130 | Miss |
| Heat at Hornets Tue, Mar 17 | CHA 53.1% · MIA 46.9% | CHA 136–MIA 106 | Hit |
| Thunder at Magic Tue, Mar 17 | ORL 21.2% · OKC 78.8% | ORL 108–OKC 113 | Hit |
| Pacers at Knicks Tue, Mar 17 | NYK 90.0% · IND 10.0% | NYK 136–IND 110 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Bucks Wed, Mar 18 | MIL 25.8% · CLE 74.2% | MIL 116–CLE 123 | Hit |
| Suns at Timberwolves Wed, Mar 18 | MIN 64.6% · PHX 35.4% | MIN 116–PHX 104 | Hit |
| Spurs at Kings Wed, Mar 18 | SAC 11.8% · SAS 88.2% | SAC 104–SAS 132 | Hit |
| 76ers at Nuggets Wed, Mar 18 | DEN 72.4% · PHI 27.6% | DEN 124–PHI 96 | Hit |
| Warriors at Celtics Wed, Mar 18 | BOS 76.9% · GSW 23.1% | BOS 120–GSW 99 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Pacers Wed, Mar 18 | IND 28.1% · POR 71.9% | IND 119–POR 127 | Hit |
| Thunder at Nets Wed, Mar 18 | BKN 11.1% · OKC 88.9% | BKN 92–OKC 121 | Hit |
| Raptors at Bulls Thu, Mar 19 | CHI 38.1% · TOR 61.9% | CHI 109–TOR 139 | Hit |
| Clippers at Pelicans Thu, Mar 19 | NOP 37.0% · LAC 63.0% | NOP 124–LAC 109 | Miss |
| Jazz at Timberwolves Thu, Mar 19 | MIN 83.7% · UTA 16.3% | MIN 147–UTA 111 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Grizzlies Thu, Mar 19 | MEM 26.7% · DEN 73.3% | MEM 125–DEN 118 | Miss |
| Hawks at Mavericks Thu, Mar 19 | DAL 28.9% · ATL 71.1% | DAL 120–ATL 135 | Hit |
| Lakers at Rockets Thu, Mar 19 | HOU 67.0% · LAL 33.0% | HOU 116–LAL 124 | Miss |
| Pistons at Wizards Thu, Mar 19 | WSH 56.3% · DET 43.7% | WSH 95–DET 117 | Miss |
| Magic at Hornets Thu, Mar 19 | CHA 62.2% · ORL 37.8% | CHA 130–ORL 111 | Hit |
| Suns at Spurs Fri, Mar 20 | SAS 78.1% · PHX 21.9% | SAS 101–PHX 100 | Hit |
| Clippers at Pelicans Fri, Mar 20 | NOP 37.7% · LAC 62.3% | NOP 105–LAC 99 | Miss |
| Lakers at Heat Fri, Mar 20 | MIA 64.2% · LAL 35.8% | MIA 126–LAL 134 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Bulls Fri, Mar 20 | CHI 22.6% · CLE 77.4% | CHI 110–CLE 115 | Hit |
| Bucks at Jazz Fri, Mar 20 | UTA 54.0% · MIL 46.0% | UTA 128–MIL 96 | Hit |
| 76ers at Kings Fri, Mar 20 | SAC 19.6% · PHI 80.4% | SAC 118–PHI 139 | Hit |
| Warriors at Pistons Fri, Mar 20 | DET 80.9% · GSW 19.1% | DET 115–GSW 101 | Hit |
| Knicks at Nets Fri, Mar 20 | BKN 14.0% · NYK 86.0% | BKN 92–NYK 93 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Timberwolves Sat, Mar 21 | MIN 77.8% · POR 22.2% | MIN 104–POR 108 | Miss |
| Hawks at Rockets Sat, Mar 21 | HOU 64.1% · ATL 35.9% | HOU 117–ATL 95 | Hit |
| Celtics at Grizzlies Sat, Mar 21 | MEM 32.0% · BOS 68.0% | MEM 112–BOS 117 | Hit |
| Raptors at Nuggets Sat, Mar 21 | DEN 62.5% · TOR 37.5% | DEN 121–TOR 115 | Hit |
| Thunder at Wizards Sat, Mar 21 | WSH 56.3% · OKC 43.7% | WSH 111–OKC 132 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Pelicans Sat, Mar 21 | NOP 23.3% · CLE 76.8% | NOP 106–CLE 111 | Hit |
| Lakers at Magic Sat, Mar 21 | ORL 54.6% · LAL 45.4% | ORL 104–LAL 105 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Hornets Sat, Mar 21 | CHA 79.3% · MEM 20.7% | CHA 124–MEM 101 | Hit |
| Heat at Rockets Sun, Mar 22 | HOU 56.3% · MIA 43.7% | HOU 123–MIA 122 | Hit |
| Pacers at Spurs Sun, Mar 22 | SAS 90.0% · IND 10.0% | SAS 134–IND 119 | Hit |
| Warriors at Hawks Sun, Mar 22 | ATL 60.0% · GSW 40.0% | ATL 126–GSW 110 | Hit |
| Clippers at Mavericks Sun, Mar 22 | DAL 30.5% · LAC 69.5% | DAL 131–LAC 138 | Hit |
| 76ers at Jazz Sun, Mar 22 | UTA 36.0% · PHI 64.0% | UTA 116–PHI 126 | Hit |
| Bucks at Suns Sun, Mar 22 | PHX 79.7% · MIL 20.3% | PHX 105–MIL 108 | Miss |
| Trail Blazers at Nuggets Sun, Mar 22 | DEN 79.3% · POR 20.7% | DEN 128–POR 112 | Hit |
| Nets at Kings Sun, Mar 22 | SAC 52.6% · BKN 47.4% | SAC 126–BKN 122 | Hit |
| Wizards at Knicks Sun, Mar 22 | NYK 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | NYK 145–WSH 113 | Hit |
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