Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Raptors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (111.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.0 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Raptors (38-29) in better form than Bulls (28-40)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 41% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 66% (+4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 63% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 56% (−6)
Win probability movement
CHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Bulls 139-109.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 62% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a major factor: Raptors defense (111.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Bulls and was a notable factor: Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.6 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bulls and was a notable factor: Bulls are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Bulls
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bulls
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Raptors
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (111.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Bulls offense (115.8 PPG) outpaces Raptors (113.6 PPG)
Recent Form
Raptors (38-29) in better form than Bulls (28-40)
Turnover Differential
Bulls turnover differential (+0) vs Raptors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Raptors
Bulls
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bulls has a 38% win probability, while Raptors has a 62% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at United Center in Chicago, IL.