Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers 77% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cavaliers:
- Defensive Efficiency. Cavaliers defense (114.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Bulls (116.0 PPG)
- Recent Form. Cavaliers (42-27) in better form than Bulls (28-40)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 59% (−18)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CLE 65% (−12)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CLE 70% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CLE 76% (−1)
Win probability movement
CHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cavaliers defeated the Bulls 115-110.
Our model predicted the Cavaliers would win with 77% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a major factor: Cavaliers defense (114.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cavaliers and was a notable factor: Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Bulls (116.0 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Cavaliers and was a contributing factor: Cavaliers (42-27) in better form than Bulls (28-40)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cavaliers won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Recent FormFavors Cleveland Cavaliers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bulls
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Cavaliers defense (114.9 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Cavaliers offense (119.1 PPG) outpaces Bulls (116.0 PPG)
Recent Form
Cavaliers (42-27) in better form than Bulls (28-40)
Turnover Differential
Bulls turnover differential (+0) vs Cavaliers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cavaliers
Bulls
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Bulls has a 23% win probability, while Cavaliers has a 77% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at United Center in Chicago, IL.