Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves 65% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Timberwolves:
- Offensive Efficiency. Timberwolves offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Timberwolves are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Timberwolves (41-27) in better form than Suns (39-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 44% (−21)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MIN 73% (+8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 59% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MIN 62% (−3)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Timberwolves defeated the Suns 116-104.
Our model predicted the Timberwolves would win with 65% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Timberwolves and was a major factor: Timberwolves offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (115.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Timberwolves and was a notable factor: Timberwolves are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Timberwolves won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- Recent FormFavors Minnesota Timberwolves
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Timberwolves offense (118.7 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Timberwolves (115.2 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Timberwolves (41-27) in better form than Suns (39-28)
Turnover Differential
Timberwolves turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Timberwolves
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Timberwolves has a 65% win probability, while Suns has a 35% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Target Center in Minneapolis, MN.