Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls vs Memphis Grizzlies head-to-head
Memphis Grizzlies 50% to win. The biggest signal favoring Grizzlies:
- Defensive Efficiency. Grizzlies defense (118.4 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 44% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MEM 54% (+4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 50% (0)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MEM 50% (0)
Win probability movement
CHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bulls defeated the Grizzlies 132-107.
Our model predicted the Grizzlies would win with 50% confidence, but the Bulls won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Grizzlies and was a contributing factor: Grizzlies defense (118.4 Opp PPG) better than Bulls (120.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Bulls and was a notable factor: Bulls are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (115.8 vs 115.7 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bulls won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Bulls
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
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Key Players
Grizzlies
Bulls
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Chicago Bulls
- Previous game69%LAC win probability
- Next game62%TOR win probability
Memphis Grizzlies
- Previous game84%DET win probability
- Next game73%DEN win probability
Other games on Mar 17, 2026
- 58%NOP win probability
- 68%HOU win probability
- 71%SAS win probability
- 56%WSH win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Bulls has a 50% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 50% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at United Center in Chicago, IL.