Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies
Denver Nuggets 73% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Offensive Efficiency. Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Nuggets defense (116.7 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.6 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Nuggets (41-27) in better form than Grizzlies (23-44)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 55% (−18)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DEN 64% (−9)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DEN 66% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DEN 73% (0)
Win probability movement
MEM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Grizzlies defeated the Nuggets 125-118.
Our model predicted the Nuggets would win with 73% confidence, but the Grizzlies won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a major factor: Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Nuggets defense (116.7 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.6 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Nuggets and was a contributing factor: Nuggets (41-27) in better form than Grizzlies (23-44)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Grizzlies won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Nuggets defense (116.7 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.6 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Nuggets (41-27) in better form than Grizzlies (23-44)
Turnover Differential
Grizzlies turnover differential (+0) vs Nuggets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Nuggets
Grizzlies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Grizzlies has a 27% win probability, while Nuggets has a 73% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at FedExForum in Memphis, TN.