Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets 68% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Lakers (115.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Rockets are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Rockets (41-25) in better form than Lakers (42-25)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 50% (−18)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 72% (+4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 62% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: HOU 65% (−3)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lakers defeated the Rockets 100-92.
Our model predicted the Rockets would win with 68% confidence, but the Lakers won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Lakers (115.2 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Lakers and was a notable factor: Lakers offense (116.3 PPG) outpaces Rockets (114.1 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockets and was a notable factor: Rockets are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lakers won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Rockets
- Recent FormFavors Houston Rockets
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Lakers (115.2 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Lakers offense (116.3 PPG) outpaces Rockets (114.1 PPG)
Recent Form
Rockets (41-25) in better form than Lakers (42-25)
Turnover Differential
Rockets turnover differential (+0) vs Lakers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lakers
Rockets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockets has a 68% win probability, while Lakers has a 32% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Toyota Center (Houston) in Houston, TX.