Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jazz:
- Offensive Efficiency. Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.2 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Jazz are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: UTA 35% (−19)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: UTA 71% (+17)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: UTA 50% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: UTA 56% (+2)
Win probability movement
UTA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jazz defeated the Bucks 128-96.
Our model predicted the Jazz would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a major factor: Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.2 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Bucks and was a major factor: Bucks defense (116.2 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.9 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jazz won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
- Recent FormFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.2 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Bucks defense (116.2 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.9 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Bucks (28-40) in better form than Jazz (20-48)
Turnover Differential
Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Bucks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Bucks
Jazz
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jazz has a 54% win probability, while Bucks has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.