Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets 79% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hornets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Hornets defense (112.2 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.6 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Hornets are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Hornets (36-34) in better form than Grizzlies (24-44)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 59% (−20)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHA 73% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CHA 73% (−6)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 75% (−4)
Win probability movement
CHA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hornets defeated the Grizzlies 124-101.
Our model predicted the Hornets would win with 79% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a major factor: Hornets defense (112.2 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.6 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hornets and was a notable factor: Hornets are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Hornets and was a contributing factor: Hornets (36-34) in better form than Grizzlies (24-44)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hornets won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Recent FormFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Hornets defense (112.2 Opp PPG) better than Grizzlies (118.6 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Hornets (36-34) in better form than Grizzlies (24-44)
Offensive Efficiency
Similar offensive efficiency (115.8 vs 115.7 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Hornets turnover differential (+0) vs Grizzlies (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Grizzlies
Hornets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hornets has a 79% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 21% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC.