Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Hornets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Hornets defense (112.2 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Hornets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 55% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHA 58% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 61% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CHA 60% (−2)
Win probability movement
CHA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hornets defeated the Magic 130-111.
Our model predicted the Hornets would win with 62% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a notable factor: Hornets defense (112.2 Opp PPG) better than Magic (114.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hornets and was a contributing factor: Hornets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (115.5 vs 115.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hornets won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Magic
Hornets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hornets has a 62% win probability, while Magic has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC.