Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks 54% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Hawks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.6 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Hawks are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 61% (+7)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 47% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 50% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ATL 54% (0)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Magic 124-112.
Our model predicted the Hawks would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Magic and was a notable factor: Magic defense (114.1 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.6 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks offense (117.7 PPG) outpaces Magic (115.6 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Orlando Magic
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Magic
Hawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hawks has a 54% win probability, while Magic has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.