Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 78% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Spurs are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Spurs (51-18) in better form than Suns (39-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 58% (−20)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 71% (−7)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 72% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 75% (−3)
Win probability movement
SAS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the Suns 101-100.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 78% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Spurs and was a contributing factor: Spurs (51-18) in better form than Suns (39-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.5 PPG)
Recent Form
Spurs (51-18) in better form than Suns (39-30)
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.4 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (111.7 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Suns
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 78% win probability, while Suns has a 22% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.