Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 81% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
- Recent Form. Pistons (49-19) in better form than Warriors (33-36)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 65% (−16)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 72% (−9)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 74% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 75% (−6)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the Warriors 115-101.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 81% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a notable factor: Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Pistons and was a contributing factor: Pistons (49-19) in better form than Warriors (33-36)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (49-19) in better form than Warriors (33-36)
Turnover Differential
Pistons turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Warriors
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 81% win probability, while Warriors has a 19% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.