Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns 80% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Suns:
- Defensive Efficiency. Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (116.4 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Suns are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Suns offense (112.4 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.2 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 62% (−18)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHX 73% (−7)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: PHX 73% (−7)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: PHX 73% (−7)
Win probability movement
PHX home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Bucks defeated the Suns 108-105.
Our model predicted the Suns would win with 80% confidence, but the Bucks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (116.4 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Suns and was a notable factor: Suns are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a contributing factor: Suns offense (112.4 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.2 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Bucks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Phoenix Suns
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormFavors Phoenix Suns
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (116.4 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Suns offense (112.4 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.2 PPG)
Recent Form
Suns (39-31) in better form than Bucks (28-41)
Turnover Differential
Suns turnover differential (+0) vs Bucks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Bucks
Suns
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Suns has a 80% win probability, while Bucks has a 20% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ.