Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks 60% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hawks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Hawks offense (118.1 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.0 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Hawks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Hawks (38-31) in better form than Warriors (33-36)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 49% (−11)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ATL 65% (+5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ATL 56% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ATL 58% (−2)
Win probability movement
ATL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hawks defeated the Warriors 126-110.
Our model predicted the Hawks would win with 60% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Hawks and was a notable factor: Hawks offense (118.1 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a notable factor: Warriors defense (114.5 Opp PPG) better than Hawks (116.6 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hawks and was a contributing factor: Hawks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hawks won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Golden State Warriors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Recent FormFavors Atlanta Hawks
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Warriors
Hawks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hawks has a 60% win probability, while Warriors has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA.