Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks
New York Knicks 77% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Knicks:
- Defensive Efficiency. Knicks defense (110.7 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Knicks offense (117.2 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
- Recent Form. Knicks (43-25) in better form than Warriors (32-34)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 64% (−13)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 69% (−8)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYK 71% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYK 71% (−6)
Win probability movement
NYK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Knicks defeated the Warriors 110-107.
Our model predicted the Knicks would win with 77% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a major factor: Knicks defense (110.7 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks offense (117.2 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Knicks and was a contributing factor: Knicks (43-25) in better form than Warriors (32-34)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Knicks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Recent FormFavors New York Knicks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Knicks
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Knicks defense (110.7 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.4 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Knicks offense (117.2 PPG) outpaces Warriors (115.2 PPG)
Recent Form
Knicks (43-25) in better form than Warriors (32-34)
Turnover Differential
Knicks turnover differential (+0) vs Warriors (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Warriors
Knicks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Knicks has a 77% win probability, while Warriors has a 23% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.