Miami Heat at Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets 56% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Rockets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.1 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Rockets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 73% (+17)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: HOU 37% (−19)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: HOU 53% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: HOU 55% (−1)
Win probability movement
HOU home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rockets defeated the Heat 123-122.
Our model predicted the Rockets would win with 56% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Heat and was a major factor: Heat offense (120.2 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.8 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.1 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Rockets and was a contributing factor: Rockets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rockets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Miami Heat
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Houston Rockets
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Heat offense (120.2 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.8 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.1 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Rockets (41-27) vs Heat (38-32)
Turnover Differential
Rockets turnover differential (+0) vs Heat (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Heat
Rockets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Rockets has a 56% win probability, while Heat has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Toyota Center (Houston) in Houston, TX.