Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets 53% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Hornets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Hornets defense (112.3 Opp PPG) better than Heat (116.6 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Hornets are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 68% (+15)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CHA 40% (−13)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHA 49% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: CHA 54% (+1)
Win probability movement
CHA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Hornets defeated the Heat 136-106.
Our model predicted the Hornets would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Heat and was a major factor: Heat offense (120.4 PPG) outpaces Hornets (115.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Hornets and was a major factor: Hornets defense (112.3 Opp PPG) better than Heat (116.6 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Hornets and was a notable factor: Hornets are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Hornets won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Miami Heat
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Charlotte Hornets
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Heat offense (120.4 PPG) outpaces Hornets (115.5 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Hornets defense (112.3 Opp PPG) better than Heat (116.6 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Hornets (34-34) vs Heat (38-30)
Turnover Differential
Hornets turnover differential (+0) vs Heat (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Heat
Hornets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Hornets has a 53% win probability, while Heat has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC.