MLB report card: week of 2026-09-21 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
55.7%
hit rate
0.234
Brier score
39 of 70 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Orioles at YankeesNYY 76.9% pre-game — final NYY 2–BAL 10
- Guardians at RoyalsCLE 75.2% pre-game — final KC 3–CLE 2
- Mets at NationalsWSH 72.5% pre-game — final WSH 1–NYM 7
- Reds at BravesATL 71.0% pre-game — final ATL 6–CIN 7
- Padres at DodgersLAD 70.8% pre-game — final LAD 2–SD 4
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Orioles at YankeesNYY 80.9% pre-game — final NYY 6–BAL 3
- Diamondbacks at RockiesARI 80.1% pre-game — final COL 8–ARI 12
- Dodgers at GiantsLAD 75.7% pre-game — final SF 1–LAD 5
- Dodgers at GiantsLAD 75.5% pre-game — final SF 3–LAD 4
- Cardinals at BrewersMIL 75.4% pre-game — final MIL 6–STL 4
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins at Giants Wed, Sep 23 | SF 55.5% · MIN 44.5% | SF 2–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Orioles Wed, Sep 23 | BAL 55.6% · TOR 44.4% | BAL 4–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Phillies Wed, Sep 23 | PHI 53.5% · MIL 46.5% | PHI 1–MIL 4 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Pirates Wed, Sep 23 | PIT 56.4% · STL 43.6% | PIT 1–STL 5 | Miss |
| Guardians at Red Sox Wed, Sep 23 | BOS 56.4% · CLE 43.6% | BOS 1–CLE 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Yankees Wed, Sep 23 | NYY 54.0% · TB 46.0% | NYY 9–TB 2 | Hit |
| Reds at Braves Wed, Sep 23 | ATL 57.3% · CIN 42.7% | ATL 3–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cubs Wed, Sep 23 | CHC 56.6% · MIA 43.4% | CHC 2–MIA 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Wed, Sep 23 | KC 50.7% · CWS 49.3% | KC 5–CWS 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Rangers Thu, Sep 24 | TEX 55.0% · NYM 45.0% | TEX 2–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Thu, Sep 24 | COL 51.3% · ARI 48.7% | COL 3–ARI 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Athletics Thu, Sep 24 | OAK 53.9% · LAA 46.1% | OAK 7–LAA 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Mariners Thu, Sep 24 | SEA 54.0% · HOU 46.0% | SEA 6–HOU 5 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Thu, Sep 24 | LAD 56.3% · SD 43.7% | LAD 1–SD 5 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Pirates Thu, Sep 24 | PIT 54.8% · STL 45.2% | PIT 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Royals Thu, Sep 24 | KC 37.4% · CWS 62.6% | KC 1–CWS 9 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cubs Thu, Sep 24 | CHC 66.2% · MIA 33.8% | CHC 2–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Rangers Thu, Sep 24 | TEX 45.3% · NYM 54.7% | TEX 3–NYM 1 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Rockies Thu, Sep 24 | COL 19.9% · ARI 80.1% | COL 8–ARI 12 | Hit |
| Brewers at Phillies Thu, Sep 24 | PHI 38.4% · MIL 61.6% | PHI 1–MIL 5 | Hit |
| Guardians at Red Sox Thu, Sep 24 | BOS 50.2% · CLE 49.8% | BOS 0–CLE 1 | Miss |
| Rays at Yankees Thu, Sep 24 | NYY 45.6% · TB 54.4% | NYY 6–TB 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Braves Thu, Sep 24 | ATL 71.0% · CIN 29.0% | ATL 6–CIN 7 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Fri, Sep 25 | OAK 41.6% · HOU 58.4% | OAK 5–HOU 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Fri, Sep 25 | SEA 48.1% · LAA 51.9% | SEA 4–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Fri, Sep 25 | LAD 70.8% · SD 29.2% | LAD 2–SD 4 | Miss |
| Cubs at Red Sox Fri, Sep 25 | BOS 33.6% · CHC 66.4% | BOS 4–CHC 3 | Miss |
| Orioles at Yankees Fri, Sep 25 | NYY 76.9% · BAL 23.1% | NYY 2–BAL 10 | Miss |
| Cubs at Red Sox Fri, Sep 25 | BOS 33.7% · CHC 66.3% | BOS 2–CHC 0 | Miss |
| Rays at Phillies Fri, Sep 25 | PHI 40.0% · TB 60.0% | PHI 0–TB 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Tigers Fri, Sep 25 | DET 46.4% · PIT 53.6% | DET 8–PIT 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Nationals Fri, Sep 25 | WSH 73.5% · NYM 26.5% | WSH 7–NYM 6 | Hit |
| Reds at Blue Jays Fri, Sep 25 | TOR 58.8% · CIN 41.2% | TOR 6–CIN 5 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Fri, Sep 25 | MIA 59.7% · ATL 40.3% | MIA 3–ATL 0 | Hit |
| Orioles at Yankees Fri, Sep 25 | NYY 80.9% · BAL 19.1% | NYY 6–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Fri, Sep 25 | KC 26.7% · CLE 73.3% | KC 9–CLE 12 | Hit |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Fri, Sep 25 | CWS 55.4% · COL 44.6% | CWS 6–COL 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Fri, Sep 25 | MIL 70.5% · STL 29.5% | MIL 8–STL 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Twins Sat, Sep 26 | MIN 45.6% · TEX 54.4% | MIN 10–TEX 2 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Sat, Sep 26 | SD 67.0% · ARI 33.0% | SD 4–ARI 11 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sat, Sep 26 | OAK 35.6% · HOU 64.4% | OAK 6–HOU 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Mariners Sat, Sep 26 | SEA 50.5% · LAA 49.5% | SEA 5–LAA 7 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Giants Sat, Sep 26 | SF 26.3% · LAD 73.7% | SF 0–LAD 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Sat, Sep 26 | WSH 72.5% · NYM 27.5% | WSH 1–NYM 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Tigers Sat, Sep 26 | DET 45.1% · PIT 54.9% | DET 4–PIT 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Blue Jays Sat, Sep 26 | TOR 51.4% · CIN 48.6% | TOR 1–CIN 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Giants Sat, Sep 26 | SF 24.5% · LAD 75.5% | SF 3–LAD 4 | Hit |
| Rangers at Twins Sat, Sep 26 | MIN 51.5% · TEX 48.5% | MIN 2–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Marlins Sat, Sep 26 | MIA 49.7% · ATL 50.3% | MIA 3–ATL 8 | Hit |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Sat, Sep 26 | CWS 50.7% · COL 49.3% | CWS 6–COL 9 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Brewers Sat, Sep 26 | MIL 75.3% · STL 24.8% | MIL 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Sat, Sep 26 | KC 25.9% · CLE 74.1% | KC 5–CLE 11 | Hit |
| Rays at Phillies Sat, Sep 26 | PHI 33.6% · TB 66.4% | PHI 1–TB 12 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Sun, Sep 27 | SD 70.4% · ARI 29.6% | SD 10–ARI 7 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Sun, Sep 27 | SEA 49.6% · LAA 50.3% | SEA 8–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sun, Sep 27 | OAK 35.9% · HOU 64.1% | OAK 2–HOU 13 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Sun, Sep 27 | WSH 71.0% · NYM 29.0% | WSH 6–NYM 4 | Hit |
| Rays at Phillies Sun, Sep 27 | PHI 31.1% · TB 68.9% | PHI 7–TB 3 | Miss |
| Astros at Athletics Sun, Sep 27 | OAK 35.4% · HOU 64.6% | OAK 0–HOU 9 | Hit |
| Cubs at Red Sox Sun, Sep 27 | BOS 35.9% · CHC 64.1% | BOS 2–CHC 6 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Giants Sun, Sep 27 | SF 24.3% · LAD 75.7% | SF 1–LAD 5 | Hit |
| Reds at Blue Jays Sun, Sep 27 | TOR 50.0% · CIN 50.0% | TOR 5–CIN 1 | Miss |
| Rockies at Chicago White Sox Sun, Sep 27 | CWS 50.1% · COL 49.9% | CWS 4–COL 2 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Brewers Sun, Sep 27 | MIL 75.4% · STL 24.6% | MIL 6–STL 4 | Hit |
| Pirates at Tigers Sun, Sep 27 | DET 45.5% · PIT 54.5% | DET 2–PIT 4 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Sun, Sep 27 | KC 24.8% · CLE 75.2% | KC 3–CLE 2 | Miss |
| Rangers at Twins Sun, Sep 27 | MIN 50.1% · TEX 49.9% | MIN 6–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Marlins Sun, Sep 27 | MIA 48.2% · ATL 51.8% | MIA 5–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Diamondbacks at Padres Sun, Sep 27 | SD 71.3% · ARI 28.7% | SD 9–ARI 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Mariners Sun, Sep 27 | SEA 48.1% · LAA 51.8% | SEA 7–LAA 3 | Miss |
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