Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves 52% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Braves:
- Defensive Efficiency. Braves pitching/defense (3.9 RA/G) better than Marlins (4.4 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency. Braves offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Marlins (4.4 R/G)
- ELO Rating. Marlins ELO 1496 vs Braves ELO 1561 (diff: -66)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Marlins defeated the Braves 5-3.
Our model predicted the Braves would win with 52% confidence, but the Marlins pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Braves and was a notable factor: Braves pitching/defense (3.9 RA/G) better than Marlins (4.4 RA/G)
- Injuries favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Marlins healthier (10 out, 0 doubtful) vs Braves (10 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Marlins are 38-28 at home this season; Braves are 39-33 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Marlins have 10 player(s) ruled out, while the Braves have 10.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Marlins won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Braves
- InjuriesFavors Miami Marlins
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Atlanta Braves
- ELO RatingFavors Atlanta Braves
- Recent FormFavors Atlanta Braves
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Marlins
Braves
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Marlins | Braves | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -126 | +105 | -1.5 | 8 |
| FanDuel | +1300 | -5000 | +2.5 | 9.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Medium impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Marlins
Braves
Key Players
Braves
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 48% win probability, while Braves has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.