MLB Analysis

Baseball win probability is driven more by pitching than any other factor in major sports. The model starts with the starting pitcher matchup — ERA, FIP, WHIP, and platoon splits against the opposing lineup. Park factors adjust for stadium dimensions and altitude (Coors Field adds roughly 10% more runs per game than a neutral park). Weather has an outsized role: temperatures below 50°F suppress offense, and wind blowing in from center field can flip a hitter-friendly park into a pitcher's park. Bullpen depth, recent usage patterns, and day/night splits round out the model. Lineup projections are updated when official batting orders post, typically 3–4 hours before first pitch.