MLB Analysis

The MLB model scores nine factors for every game: Elo rating, each team's home and road record this season, runs scored and allowed per game (the two most heavily weighted factors), recent form, head-to-head history, rest days, injuries weighted by position (a starting pitcher counts most), and weather at open-air parks. It does not yet use individual starting-pitcher stats such as ERA. Every game is re-scored each morning, then every 15 minutes in the three hours before first pitch as injury reports change. The methodology page explains the full method.