MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 1104 of 2047 decided games this season (53.9%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason is excluded.
This week
No surprises this week. Either the model's favourite won every finished game, or no finished game has a pre-game assessment yet.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 25 | BAL at NYY Orioles at Yankees | BAL 23.1% | NYY 2–BAL 10 | Defensive Efficiency Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Orioles (4.6 RA/G) |
| Mon, Oct 5 | ATL at LAD Braves at Dodgers | ATL 23.8% | LAD 2–ATL 3 | Injuries Dodgers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Braves 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sun, Sep 27 | CLE at KC Guardians at Royals | KC 24.8% | KC 3–CLE 2 | Injuries Guardians healthier (2 out, 0 doubtful) vs Royals (13 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Tue, Oct 13 | CLE at TB Guardians at Rays | CLE 25.9% | TB 3–CLE 7 | Injuries Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Guardians 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Sep 26 | NYM at WSH Mets at Nationals | NYM 27.5% | WSH 1–NYM 7 | Injuries Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (7 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Thu, Sep 24 | CIN at ATL Reds at Braves | CIN 29.0% | ATL 6–CIN 7 | Defensive Efficiency Braves pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G) |
| Fri, Sep 25 | SD at LAD Padres at Dodgers | SD 29.2% | LAD 2–SD 4 | Offensive Efficiency Dodgers offense (5.0 R/G) outpaces Padres (4.4 R/G) |
| Sun, Sep 27 | TB at PHI Rays at Phillies | PHI 31.1% | PHI 7–TB 3 | Injuries Rays healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Phillies (5 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Sat, Sep 26 | ARI at SD Diamondbacks at Padres | ARI 33.0% | SD 4–ARI 11 | Injuries Padres healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Diamondbacks (6 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Thu, Oct 15 | MIL at LAD Brewers at Dodgers | MIL 33.3% | LAD 2–MIL 6 | Injuries Dodgers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Sep 25 | CHC at BOS Cubs at Red Sox | BOS 33.6% | BOS 4–CHC 3 | Offensive Efficiency Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G) |
| Fri, Sep 25 | CHC at BOS Cubs at Red Sox | BOS 33.7% | BOS 2–CHC 0 | Offensive Efficiency Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G) |
| Fri, Oct 16 | MIL at LAD Brewers at Dodgers | MIL 33.7% | LAD 4–MIL 6 | Injuries Dodgers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Fri, Jun 12 | SEA at WSH Mariners at Nationals | SEA 34.7% | WSH 2–SEA 10 | Rest Days Nationals rest advantage (2 days rest) over Mariners (back-to-back) |
| Thu, Oct 15 | TB at CLE Rays at Guardians | CLE 34.8% | CLE 3–TB 2 | Injuries Rays healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Guardians 3 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Sep 26 | HOU at OAK Astros at Athletics | OAK 35.6% | OAK 6–HOU 5 | Injuries Astros healthier (9 out, 0 doubtful) vs Oakland Athletics (12 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Mon, Oct 5 | CWS at CLE Chicago White Sox at Guardians | CWS 35.6% | CLE 3–CWS 4 | Injuries Guardians healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Chicago White Sox 8 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Oct 3 | CWS at CLE Chicago White Sox at Guardians | CWS 35.6% | CLE 0–CWS 3 | Injuries Guardians healthier: 3 out, 0 doubtful vs Chicago White Sox 9 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, May 16 | LAD at LAA Dodgers at Angels | LAD 36.5% | LAA 0–LAD 6 | Rest Days Angels rest advantage (2 days rest) over Dodgers (back-to-back) |
| Fri, Apr 10 | ARI at PHI Diamondbacks at Phillies | ARI 36.5% | PHI 4–ARI 5 | Rest Days Phillies rest advantage (2 days rest) over Diamondbacks (back-to-back) |
| Fri, Jul 3 | STL at CHC Cardinals at Cubs | STL 36.9% | CHC 1–STL 17 | Rest Days Cubs rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cardinals (back-to-back) |
| Fri, May 15 | PHI at PIT Phillies at Pirates | PHI 38.3% | PIT 9–PHI 11 | Rest Days Pirates rest advantage (1 day rest) over Phillies (back-to-back) |
| Tue, May 5 | BAL at MIA Orioles at Marlins | BAL 38.3% | MIA 7–BAL 9 | Rest Days Marlins rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back) |
| Fri, Apr 24 | PIT at MIL Pirates at Brewers | PIT 38.3% | MIL 0–PIT 6 | Rest Days Brewers rest advantage (1 day rest) over Pirates (back-to-back) |
| Mon, Apr 20 | ATL at WSH Braves at Nationals | ATL 38.3% | WSH 4–ATL 9 | Rest Days Nationals rest advantage (1 day rest) over Braves (back-to-back) |
| Sun, Mar 8 | LAA at TEX Angels at Rangers | LAA 39.3% | TEX 7–LAA 10 | Rest Days Rangers has rest advantage (8 days) over Angels (0 days) |
| Thu, Jun 25 | HOU at DET Astros at Tigers | HOU 39.7% | DET 1–HOU 2 | Rest Days Tigers rest advantage (1 day rest) over Astros (back-to-back) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | ARI at WSH Diamondbacks at Nationals | ARI 40.3% | WSH 2–ARI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | BAL at WSH Orioles at Nationals | BAL 42.1% | WSH 3–BAL 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 25 | PHI at WSH Phillies at Nationals | PHI 42.2% | WSH 5–PHI 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | PHI at WSH Phillies at Nationals | PHI 42.2% | WSH 4–PHI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | PHI at WSH Phillies at Nationals | PHI 42.2% | WSH 9–PHI 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 17 | KC at WSH Royals at Nationals | KC 42.3% | WSH 2–KC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 26 | SEA at CLE Mariners at Guardians | SEA 42.3% | CLE 1–SEA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 23 | STL at CIN Cardinals at Reds | STL 42.4% | CIN 1–STL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Oct 12 | LAD at MIL Dodgers at Brewers | MIL 42.5% | MIL 7–LAD 4 | Injuries Dodgers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Jun 13 | CHC at SF Cubs at Giants | CHC 42.6% | SF 1–CHC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | HOU at WSH Astros at Nationals | HOU 42.6% | WSH 3–HOU 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 10 | ARI at SD Diamondbacks at Padres | ARI 42.7% | SD 1–ARI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | ARI at SD Diamondbacks at Padres | ARI 42.7% | SD 0–ARI 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | MIA at WSH Marlins at Nationals | MIA 42.8% | WSH 1–MIA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | MIA at WSH Marlins at Nationals | MIA 42.8% | WSH 3–MIA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 1 | MIA at WSH Marlins at Nationals | MIA 42.8% | WSH 3–MIA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 12 | ARI at CIN Diamondbacks at Reds | ARI 42.9% | CIN 2–ARI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | PHI at SD Phillies at Padres | PHI 42.9% | SD 0–PHI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | PHI at SD Phillies at Padres | PHI 42.9% | SD 3–PHI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | PHI at SD Phillies at Padres | PHI 42.9% | SD 0–PHI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Oct 12 | LAD at MIL Dodgers at Brewers | MIL 43.0% | MIL 2–LAD 1 | Injuries Dodgers healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Brewers 5 out, 0 doubtful |
| Sat, Jun 13 | PHI at MIL Phillies at Brewers | PHI 43.1% | MIL 8–PHI 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | PHI at CIN Phillies at Reds | PHI 43.1% | CIN 1–PHI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 1–50 of 943 surprises