St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cubs:
- Rest Days. Cubs rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cardinals (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Cubs ELO 1495 vs Cardinals ELO 1473 (diff: +22)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: CHC 56% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHC 60% (−3)
Win probability movement
CHC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cardinals defeated the Cubs 17-1.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 63% confidence, but the Cardinals pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Cubs and was a major factor: Cubs rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cardinals (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cardinals won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Chicago Cubs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Cubs
Cardinals
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Cubs rest advantage (2 days rest) over Cardinals (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cardinals
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 63% win probability, while Cardinals has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.