St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
MLBregular • 2026-2027 Season
Scheduled
CHC 56%44% STL
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate
Chicago Cubs 56% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Cubs:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Cubs rest advantage (3 days rest) over Cardinals (5 days rest)
- ELO Rating. Cubs ELO 1495 vs Cardinals ELO 1473 (diff: +22)
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Cardinals (away)
Cubs (home)
44%
Win probability
56%
0
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
0
Cubs56%
is favored to win
Key Factor
Home Field Advantage
Favors CHC
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Rest DaysFavors Chicago Cubs
- ELO RatingFavors Chicago Cubs
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
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What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
STL
CHC
Home Field Advantage
Rest Days
Favours STL|Favours CHC
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 6/30/2026, 8:45:02 AM
Key Players
Cardinals
Dustin MaySP
Michael McGreevySP
Kyle LeahySP
Andre PallanteSP
Hunter DobbinsSP
Cubs
David PetersonSP
Edward CabreraSP
Shota ImanagaSP
Colin ReaSP
Jameson TaillonSP
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 56% win probability, while Cardinals has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.