Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros head-to-head
Detroit Tigers 60% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Tigers:
- Rest Days. Tigers rest advantage (1 day rest) over Astros (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: DET 56% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: DET 58% (−2)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Astros defeated the Tigers 2-1.
Our model predicted the Tigers would win with 60% confidence, but the Astros pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Tigers and was a major factor: Tigers rest advantage (1 day rest) over Astros (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Tigers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Astros won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Tigers
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Tigers
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Tigers rest advantage (1 day rest) over Astros (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Astros
Tigers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
More games
Next and previous games for each team, plus others from this date. Win probabilities use the same display assessment as the game page.
Detroit Tigers
- Previous game55%DET win probability
- Next game54%DET win probability
Houston Astros
- Previous game56%TOR win probability
- Next game54%DET win probability
Other games on Jun 25, 2026
- 57%SD win probability
- 56%SF win probability
- 56%TB win probability
- 56%PIT win probability
Frequently Asked Questions
Tigers has a 60% win probability, while Astros has a 40% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan.