Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies 64% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Phillies:
- Rest Days. Phillies rest advantage (2 days rest) over Diamondbacks (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: PHI 56% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: PHI 60% (−4)
Win probability movement
PHI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Diamondbacks defeated the Phillies 5-4.
Our model predicted the Phillies would win with 64% confidence, but the Diamondbacks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Phillies and was a major factor: Phillies rest advantage (2 days rest) over Diamondbacks (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No defensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Diamondbacks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Phillies rest advantage (2 days rest) over Diamondbacks (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Diamondbacks
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 64% win probability, while Diamondbacks has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.