Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rays:
- Injuries. Rays healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Phillies (5 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency. Rays pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Phillies (4.3 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency. Rays offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Phillies (4.4 R/G)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Phillies defeated the Rays 7-3.
Our model predicted the Rays would win with 69% confidence, but the Phillies pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Rays and was a major factor: Rays healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Phillies (5 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rays and was a contributing factor: Rays pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Phillies (4.3 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Phillies and was a notable factor: Phillies are 36-37 at home this season; Rays are 33-39 on the road
- The Phillies are without 5 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Phillies won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Philadelphia Phillies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- ELO RatingFavors Tampa Bay Rays
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Rays
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Phillies
Rays
Odds by Sportsbook
| Source | Phillies | Rays | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -207 | +169 | -1.5 | 6.5 |
| FanDuel | +3500 | -50000 | +6.5 | 10.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Rays healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Phillies (5 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Phillies
Rays
No injuries reported
Key Players
Rays
No player data available
Phillies
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Phillies has a 31% win probability, while Rays has a 69% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.