MLB2026 season
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Sun, Sep 27, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- NYM at WSHSun, Sep 27, 2026WSH 71%WSH 4–6
- NYM at WSHSat, Sep 26, 2026WSH 72%NYM 7–1
- NYM at WSHFri, Sep 25, 2026WSH 73%WSH 6–7
- NYM at WSHThu, May 21, 2026WSH 55%NYM 2–1
- NYM at WSHWed, May 20, 2026WSH 55%WSH 4–8
- NYM at WSHTue, May 19, 2026WSH 55%WSH 6–9
- NYM at WSHMon, May 18, 2026WSH 55%NYM 16–7
- WSH at NYMThu, Apr 30, 2026NYM 55%WSH 5–4
- WSH at NYMWed, Apr 29, 2026NYM 55%WSH 14–2
- WSH at NYMTue, Apr 28, 2026NYM 55%NYM 0–8
- NYM at WSHSat, Mar 21, 2026WSH 55%WSH 1–3
- WSH at NYMMon, Mar 16, 2026NYM 55%WSH 12–6
- NYM at WSHFri, Mar 13, 2026—NYM 8–3
- NYM at WSHSat, Mar 7, 2026WSH 56%WSH 0–3
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
54%
7 of 13 decided games
Meetings graded
13
2026
Correct calls
7
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
New York Mets
- Defensive Efficiency — Mets pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Nationals (5.0 RA/G)
Washington Nationals
- Injuries — Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (8 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency — Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Nationals are 31-39 at home this season; Mets are 34-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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