New York Mets at Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nationals:
- Injuries. Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (7 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency. Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Nationals are 31-38 at home this season; Mets are 33-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Mets defeated the Nationals 7-1.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 72% confidence, but the Mets pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Nationals and was a major factor: Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (7 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Nationals offense (5.1 R/G) outpaces Mets (4.3 R/G)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Mets and was a notable factor: Mets pitching/defense (4.5 RA/G) better than Nationals (5.0 RA/G)
- The Mets are without 7 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Mets won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Washington Nationals
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Washington Nationals
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Mets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Nationals
- Recent FormNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Nationals
Mets
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Nationals healthier (0 out, 0 doubtful) vs Mets (7 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Mets
Nationals
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationals has a 72% win probability, while Mets has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia.