Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays 51% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Blue Jays:
- Defensive Efficiency. Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Blue Jays are 36-33 at home this season; Reds are 32-40 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Reds defeated the Blue Jays 5-1.
Our model predicted the Blue Jays would win with 51% confidence, but the Reds pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Reds and was a major factor: Reds healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Blue Jays (14 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Blue Jays and was a notable factor: Blue Jays pitching/defense (4.3 RA/G) better than Reds (5.1 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Blue Jays and was a notable factor: Blue Jays are 36-33 at home this season; Reds are 32-40 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Blue Jays have 14 player(s) ruled out, while the Reds have 7.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Reds won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Blue Jays
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Cincinnati Reds
- Recent FormNeutral
- ELO RatingNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Reds healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Blue Jays (14 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Blue Jays
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Blue Jays has a 51% win probability, while Reds has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario.