Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh Pirates 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Pirates:
- Injuries. Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Offensive Efficiency. Pirates offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Tigers (4.5 R/G)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Tigers defeated the Pirates 4-3.
Our model predicted the Pirates would win with 55% confidence, but the Tigers pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Pirates and was a major factor: Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Tigers and was a notable factor: Tigers pitching/defense (4.0 RA/G) better than Pirates (4.6 RA/G)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pirates and was a contributing factor: Pirates offense (4.8 R/G) outpaces Tigers (4.5 R/G)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Tigers have 13 player(s) ruled out, while the Pirates have 5.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Tigers won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Tigers
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Pittsburgh Pirates
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Tigers
- ELO RatingFavors Detroit Tigers
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Tigers
Pirates
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Pirates
Tigers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Tigers has a 45% win probability, while Pirates has a 55% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan.