Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins 62% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Marlins:
- Rest Days. Marlins rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: MIA 56% (−6)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIA 58% (−4)
Win probability movement
MIA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Orioles defeated the Marlins 9-7.
Our model predicted the Marlins would win with 62% confidence, but the Orioles won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Marlins and was a major factor: Marlins rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Marlins and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Orioles won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Miami Marlins
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Miami Marlins
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Marlins
Orioles
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Marlins rest advantage (1 day rest) over Orioles (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Orioles
Marlins
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Marlins has a 62% win probability, while Orioles has a 38% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.