Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs 66% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Cubs:
- Offensive Efficiency. Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G)
- Injuries. Cubs healthier (11 out, 0 doubtful) vs Red Sox (13 out, 0 doubtful)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Cubs 2-0.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 66% confidence, but the Red Sox pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Cubs and was a major factor: Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G)
- Injuries favored the Cubs and was a major factor: Cubs healthier (11 out, 0 doubtful) vs Red Sox (13 out, 0 doubtful)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Red Sox and was a notable factor: Red Sox pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Cubs (4.4 RA/G)
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Red Sox have 13 player(s) ruled out, while the Cubs have 11.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Chicago Cubs
- InjuriesFavors Chicago Cubs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Red Sox
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Boston Red Sox
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Cubs offense (5.3 R/G) outpaces Red Sox (4.3 R/G)
Defensive Efficiency
Red Sox pitching/defense (3.8 RA/G) better than Cubs (4.4 RA/G)
Recent Form
Similar form: Red Sox (85-74) vs Cubs (88-71)
Injuries
Cubs healthier (11 out, 0 doubtful) vs Red Sox (13 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cubs
Red Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Red Sox has a 34% win probability, while Cubs has a 66% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.