MLB2026 season
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
Head-to-head win probability for MLB. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Most recent meeting
Fri, Sep 25, 2026
This season
2026 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
- BAL at NYYFri, Sep 25, 2026NYY 81%NYY 3–6
- BAL at NYYFri, Sep 25, 2026NYY 77%BAL 10–2
- NYY at BALWed, May 13, 2026BAL 55%BAL 0–7
- NYY at BALTue, May 12, 2026BAL 55%NYY 6–2
- NYY at BALMon, May 11, 2026BAL 55%BAL 2–3
- BAL at NYYMon, May 4, 2026NYY 55%NYY 1–12
- BAL at NYYSun, May 3, 2026NYY 55%NYY 3–11
- BAL at NYYSat, May 2, 2026NYY 55%NYY 4–9
- BAL at NYYFri, May 1, 2026NYY 57%NYY 2–7
- BAL at NYYFri, Mar 20, 2026NYY 55%NYY 1–3
- BAL at NYYThu, Mar 19, 2026NYY 55%NYY 4–5
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
82%
9 of 11 decided games
Meetings graded
11
2026
Correct calls
9
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Baltimore Orioles
No recent factors yet.
New York Yankees
- Defensive Efficiency — Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Rays (4.0 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage — Yankees are 42-30 at home this season; Rays are 33-40 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)
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