Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Yankees:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Yankees rest advantage (2 days rest) over Orioles (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYY 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NYY 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
NYY home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Orioles 7-2.
Our model predicted the Yankees would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees rest advantage (2 days rest) over Orioles (1 day rest)
- Weather Impact was neutral and a contributing factor: Weather data not available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Rest DaysFavors New York Yankees
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Yankees
Orioles
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Orioles
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 57% win probability, while Orioles has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.