Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 81% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Yankees:
- Defensive Efficiency. Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Orioles (4.6 RA/G)
- Injuries. Yankees healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Orioles (11 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage. Yankees are 39-30 at home this season; Orioles are 28-36 on the road
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Yankees defeated the Orioles 6-3.
Our model predicted the Yankees would win with 81% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Orioles (4.6 RA/G)
- Injuries favored the Yankees and was a major factor: Yankees healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Orioles (11 out, 0 doubtful)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Yankees are 39-30 at home this season; Orioles are 28-36 on the road
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Yankees have 7 player(s) ruled out, while the Orioles have 11.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Yankees won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- InjuriesFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Recent FormFavors New York Yankees
- ELO RatingFavors New York Yankees
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Yankees healthier (7 out, 0 doubtful) vs Orioles (11 out, 0 doubtful)
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Orioles
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 81% win probability, while Orioles has a 19% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.