Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Nationals:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- ELO Rating. Nationals ELO 1576 vs Marlins ELO 1500 (diff: +76)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WSH 52% (−5)
Win probability movement
WSH home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Marlins defeated the Nationals 7-3.
Our model predicted the Nationals would win with 57% confidence, but the Marlins pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Nationals and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Nationals (0 out) vs Marlins (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Marlins won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Nationals
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- ELO RatingFavors Washington Nationals
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Nationals
Marlins
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Marlins
Nationals
No player data available
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nationals has a 57% win probability, while Marlins has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, District of Columbia.