MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jun 10 | CIN at SD Reds at Padres | CIN 43.2% | SD 3–CIN 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | PIT at WSH Pirates at Nationals | PIT 43.2% | WSH 5–PIT 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | PIT at WSH Pirates at Nationals | PIT 43.2% | WSH 1–PIT 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | OAK at SD Athletics at Padres | OAK 43.3% | SD 2–OAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | TEX at TB Rangers at Rays | TEX 43.3% | TB 1–TEX 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 8 | HOU at SD Astros at Padres | HOU 43.3% | SD 3–HOU 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 2 | CIN at MIL Reds at Brewers | CIN 43.3% | MIL 2–CIN 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Sep 23 | MIA at CHC Marlins at Cubs | MIA 43.4% | CHC 2–MIA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | LAA at DET Angels at Tigers | LAA 43.4% | DET 6–LAA 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | SEA at LAD Mariners at Dodgers | SEA 43.4% | LAD 6–SEA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | NYY at PHI Yankees at Phillies | NYY 43.4% | PHI 0–NYY 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | ARI at LAD Diamondbacks at Dodgers | ARI 43.4% | LAD 3–ARI 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 10 | NYY at WSH Yankees at Nationals | NYY 43.4% | WSH 3–NYY 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 7 | BOS at CWS Red Sox at Chicago White Sox | BOS 43.4% | CWS 1–BOS 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 10 | PHI at TOR Phillies at Blue Jays | PHI 43.5% | TOR 4–PHI 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 8 | PHI at TOR Phillies at Blue Jays | PHI 43.5% | TOR 2–PHI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | CHC at MIL Cubs at Brewers | CHC 43.5% | MIL 3–CHC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | CHC at MIL Cubs at Brewers | CHC 43.5% | MIL 2–CHC 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Sep 23 | STL at PIT Cardinals at Pirates | STL 43.6% | PIT 1–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | ARI at SF Diamondbacks at Giants | ARI 43.6% | SF 2–ARI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | ARI at SF Diamondbacks at Giants | ARI 43.6% | SF 5–ARI 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | ARI at SF Diamondbacks at Giants | ARI 43.6% | SF 2–ARI 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | MIA at OAK Marlins at Athletics | MIA 43.7% | OAK 5–MIA 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Mar 26 | LAA at HOU Angels at Astros | LAA 43.7% | HOU 0–LAA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Mar 26 | NYY at SF Yankees at Giants | NYY 43.7% | SF 0–NYY 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | MIN at MIL Twins at Brewers | MIN 43.7% | MIL 6–MIN 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 26 | LAA at SF Angels at Giants | LAA 43.7% | SF 3–LAA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Sep 24 | SD at LAD Padres at Dodgers | SD 43.7% | LAD 1–SD 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 31 | BOS at CLE Red Sox at Guardians | BOS 43.7% | CLE 4–BOS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 30 | BOS at CLE Red Sox at Guardians | BOS 43.7% | CLE 1–BOS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | COL at MIL Rockies at Brewers | COL 43.8% | MIL 2–COL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | HOU at TOR Astros at Blue Jays | HOU 43.9% | TOR 1–HOU 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | HOU at TOR Astros at Blue Jays | HOU 43.9% | TOR 7–HOU 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | ARI at PIT Diamondbacks at Pirates | ARI 43.9% | PIT 0–ARI 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | ARI at PIT Diamondbacks at Pirates | ARI 43.9% | PIT 7–ARI 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | TB at HOU Rays at Astros | TB 43.9% | HOU 1–TB 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | TOR at WSH Blue Jays at Nationals | TOR 43.9% | WSH 2–TOR 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 27 | TOR at WSH Blue Jays at Nationals | TOR 43.9% | WSH 2–TOR 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | ARI at CLE Diamondbacks at Guardians | ARI 43.9% | CLE 8–ARI 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | ARI at CLE Diamondbacks at Guardians | ARI 43.9% | CLE 1–ARI 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | OAK at LAA Athletics at Angels | OAK 43.9% | LAA 3–OAK 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 24 | BOS at COL Red Sox at Rockies | BOS 44.0% | COL 2–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | SEA at PIT Mariners at Pirates | SEA 44.0% | PIT 2–SEA 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 25 | MIA at TOR Marlins at Blue Jays | MIA 44.0% | TOR 2–MIA 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 18 | CLE at MIL Guardians at Brewers | CLE 44.0% | MIL 2–CLE 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Aug 3 | PIT at MIL Pirates at Brewers | PIT 44.1% | MIL 3–PIT 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 30 | LAA at TB Angels at Rays | LAA 44.1% | TB 3–LAA 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | DET at TB Tigers at Rays | DET 44.1% | TB 2–DET 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 2 | DET at TB Tigers at Rays | DET 44.1% | TB 0–DET 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 1 | DET at TB Tigers at Rays | DET 44.1% | TB 9–DET 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 51–100 of 860 surprises