Boston Red Sox at Chicago Chicago White Sox
Chicago Chicago White Sox 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Chicago White Sox:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days. Chicago White Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Red Sox (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CWS 54% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CWS 56% (−1)
Win probability movement
CWS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Chicago White Sox 8-1.
Our model predicted the Chicago White Sox would win with 57% confidence, but the Red Sox pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Chicago White Sox and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Rest Days favored the Chicago White Sox and was a contributing factor: Chicago White Sox rest advantage (2 days rest) over Red Sox (1 day rest)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
- Rest DaysFavors Chicago Chicago White Sox
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Red Sox
Chicago White Sox
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Chicago White Sox has a 57% win probability, while Red Sox has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois.