MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, May 17 | PHI at PIT Phillies at Pirates | PHI 44.1% | PIT 0–PHI 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | PHI at PIT Phillies at Pirates | PHI 44.1% | PIT 0–PHI 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 12 | SEA at TB Mariners at Rays | SEA 44.1% | TB 2–SEA 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | SF at SD Giants at Padres | SF 44.2% | SD 1–SF 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 17 | ARI at COL Diamondbacks at Rockies | ARI 44.2% | COL 6–ARI 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | LAA at TEX Angels at Rangers | LAA 44.2% | TEX 1–LAA 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 28 | TEX at TOR Rangers at Blue Jays | TEX 44.2% | TOR 2–TEX 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | TEX at TOR Rangers at Blue Jays | TEX 44.2% | TOR 4–TEX 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 26 | TEX at TOR Rangers at Blue Jays | TEX 44.2% | TOR 4–TEX 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 25 | TEX at TOR Rangers at Blue Jays | TEX 44.2% | TOR 5–TEX 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | DET at TEX Tigers at Rangers | DET 44.2% | TEX 3–DET 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | DET at TEX Tigers at Rangers | DET 44.2% | TEX 0–DET 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 25 | OAK at SF Athletics at Giants | OAK 44.2% | SF 6–OAK 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 13 | STL at MIN Cardinals at Twins | STL 44.2% | MIN 6–STL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 26 | SEA at TEX Mariners at Rangers | SEA 44.3% | TEX 4–SEA 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | NYM at PIT Mets at Pirates | NYM 44.3% | PIT 4–NYM 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | BOS at ATL Red Sox at Braves | BOS 44.3% | ATL 2–BOS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | SF at MIL Giants at Brewers | SF 44.3% | MIL 9–SF 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | SF at MIL Giants at Brewers | SF 44.3% | MIL 0–SF 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | PIT at CLE Pirates at Guardians | PIT 44.3% | CLE 1–PIT 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | LAA at MIN Angels at Twins | LAA 44.3% | MIN 3–LAA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | CHC at SF Cubs at Giants | CHC 44.3% | SF 1–CHC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 23 | KC at TB Royals at Rays | KC 44.3% | TB 5–KC 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 22 | KC at TB Royals at Rays | KC 44.3% | TB 1–KC 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | TB at TOR Rays at Blue Jays | TB 44.3% | TOR 2–TB 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | TB at TOR Rays at Blue Jays | TB 44.3% | TOR 2–TB 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 20 | TB at TOR Rays at Blue Jays | TB 44.3% | TOR 1–TB 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | LAA at MIA Angels at Marlins | LAA 44.4% | MIA 3–LAA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | BOS at OAK Red Sox at Athletics | BOS 44.4% | OAK 4–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 30 | BOS at OAK Red Sox at Athletics | BOS 44.4% | OAK 2–BOS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | BOS at OAK Red Sox at Athletics | BOS 44.4% | OAK 2–BOS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 27 | CIN at PIT Reds at Pirates | CIN 44.4% | PIT 7–CIN 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 26 | CIN at PIT Reds at Pirates | CIN 44.4% | PIT 4–CIN 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 22 | CLE at PHI Guardians at Phillies | CLE 44.4% | PHI 0–CLE 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 2 | STL at ATL Cardinals at Braves | STL 44.4% | ATL 5–STL 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | STL at ATL Cardinals at Braves | STL 44.4% | ATL 3–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | STL at CHC Cardinals at Cubs | STL 44.4% | CHC 0–STL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 29 | SD at WSH Padres at Nationals | SD 44.4% | WSH 5–SD 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | PIT at TOR Pirates at Blue Jays | PIT 44.5% | TOR 1–PIT 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Sep 23 | MIN at SF Twins at Giants | MIN 44.5% | SF 2–MIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | BAL at HOU Orioles at Astros | BAL 44.5% | HOU 2–BAL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | BAL at HOU Orioles at Astros | BAL 44.5% | HOU 2–BAL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | BAL at HOU Orioles at Astros | BAL 44.5% | HOU 2–BAL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | CHC at PIT Cubs at Pirates | CHC 44.5% | PIT 0–CHC 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | CHC at PIT Cubs at Pirates | CHC 44.5% | PIT 2–CHC 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 23 | DET at CHC Tigers at Cubs | DET 44.5% | CHC 1–DET 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | DET at CHC Tigers at Cubs | DET 44.5% | CHC 6–DET 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 28 | CHC at PIT Cubs at Pirates | CHC 44.5% | PIT 2–CHC 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | CHC at PIT Cubs at Pirates | CHC 44.5% | PIT 4–CHC 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | ATL at PIT Braves at Pirates | ATL 44.6% | PIT 5–ATL 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 101–150 of 860 surprises