MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jul 8 | ATL at PIT Braves at Pirates | ATL 44.6% | PIT 0–ATL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | KC at MIN Royals at Twins | KC 44.6% | MIN 0–KC 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 7 | KC at MIN Royals at Twins | KC 44.6% | MIN 5–KC 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 6 | KC at MIN Royals at Twins | KC 44.6% | MIN 2–KC 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | KC at MIN Royals at Twins | KC 44.6% | MIN 6–KC 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | COL at SF Rockies at Giants | COL 44.6% | SF 3–COL 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | ARI at CIN Diamondbacks at Reds | ARI 44.6% | CIN 3–ARI 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | LAA at OAK Angels at Athletics | LAA 44.6% | OAK 7–LAA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | LAA at OAK Angels at Athletics | LAA 44.6% | OAK 0–LAA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | DET at OAK Tigers at Athletics | DET 44.6% | OAK 0–DET 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | DET at OAK Tigers at Athletics | DET 44.6% | OAK 6–DET 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Mar 27 | CLE at SEA Guardians at Mariners | CLE 44.6% | SEA 4–CLE 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Mar 26 | DET at SD Tigers at Padres | DET 44.6% | SD 2–DET 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | BOS at KC Red Sox at Royals | BOS 44.7% | KC 3–BOS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | BOS at KC Red Sox at Royals | BOS 44.7% | KC 1–BOS 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, May 18 | BOS at KC Red Sox at Royals | BOS 44.7% | KC 1–BOS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 4 | BAL at CIN Orioles at Reds | BAL 44.7% | CIN 5–BAL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | CIN at COL Reds at Rockies | CIN 44.7% | COL 6–CIN 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | CIN at COL Reds at Rockies | CIN 44.7% | COL 2–CIN 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 14 | MIA at PIT Marlins at Pirates | MIA 44.7% | PIT 2–MIA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jun 12 | MIA at PIT Marlins at Pirates | MIA 44.7% | PIT 3–MIA 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | SEA at OAK Mariners at Athletics | SEA 44.7% | OAK 1–SEA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 27 | SEA at OAK Mariners at Athletics | SEA 44.7% | OAK 1–SEA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 26 | SEA at OAK Mariners at Athletics | SEA 44.7% | OAK 2–SEA 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 23 | MIN at CLE Twins at Guardians | MIN 44.8% | CLE 1–MIN 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | MIN at CLE Twins at Guardians | MIN 44.8% | CLE 6–MIN 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 11 | HOU at TEX Astros at Rangers | HOU 44.8% | TEX 3–HOU 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | STL at KC Cardinals at Royals | STL 44.8% | KC 10–STL 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 29 | HOU at TEX Astros at Rangers | HOU 44.8% | TEX 1–HOU 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 28 | HOU at TEX Astros at Rangers | HOU 44.8% | TEX 3–HOU 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 11 | CHC at COL Cubs at Rockies | CHC 44.8% | COL 3–CHC 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 16 | MIA at TB Marlins at Rays | MIA 44.8% | TB 5–MIA 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 21 | BOS at SEA Red Sox at Mariners | BOS 44.8% | SEA 1–BOS 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jun 20 | BOS at SEA Red Sox at Mariners | BOS 44.8% | SEA 2–BOS 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 9 | PHI at CIN Phillies at Reds | PHI 44.9% | CIN 0–PHI 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 6 | BOS at LAA Red Sox at Angels | BOS 44.9% | LAA 5–BOS 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | BOS at LAA Red Sox at Angels | BOS 44.9% | LAA 1–BOS 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | TEX at CLE Rangers at Guardians | TEX 44.9% | CLE 2–TEX 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 29 | TEX at CLE Rangers at Guardians | TEX 44.9% | CLE 3–TEX 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | HOU at MIN Astros at Twins | HOU 44.9% | MIN 1–HOU 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | KC at CIN Royals at Reds | KC 44.9% | CIN 2–KC 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jun 1 | KC at CIN Royals at Reds | KC 44.9% | CIN 2–KC 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Sep 24 | NYM at TEX Mets at Rangers | NYM 45.0% | TEX 2–NYM 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, May 22 | SEA at KC Mariners at Royals | SEA 45.0% | KC 0–SEA 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 1 | MIA at COL Marlins at Rockies | MIA 45.0% | COL 3–MIA 14 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 30 | MIA at COL Marlins at Rockies | MIA 45.0% | COL 7–MIA 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 21 | ATL at MIA Braves at Marlins | ATL 45.0% | MIA 3–ATL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, May 20 | ATL at MIA Braves at Marlins | ATL 45.0% | MIA 1–ATL 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, May 19 | ATL at MIA Braves at Marlins | ATL 45.0% | MIA 4–ATL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 18 | MIN at TEX Twins at Rangers | MIN 45.0% | TEX 3–MIN 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 151–200 of 860 surprises