MLB
MLB surprises: lower-rated teams that won
2026 season. Finished games where the team the model rated lower before kickoff won. Ranked by that winner's pre-game win probability, lowest first. Only games with a real pre-game assessment are listed.
The model's favourite has won 956 of 1816 decided games this season (52.6%). Same rules as the accuracy page; preseason and postseason are excluded.
Season list
| Date | Matchup | Winner pre-game | Final | Top factor for the other side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, Jun 17 | MIN at TEX Twins at Rangers | MIN 45.0% | TEX 2–MIN 12 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jun 16 | MIN at TEX Twins at Rangers | MIN 45.0% | TEX 2–MIN 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 4 | OAK at CHC Athletics at Cubs | OAK 45.0% | CHC 4–OAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jun 3 | OAK at CHC Athletics at Cubs | OAK 45.0% | CHC 1–OAK 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | STL at LAA Cardinals at Angels | STL 45.1% | LAA 0–STL 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jun 7 | OAK at HOU Athletics at Astros | OAK 45.1% | HOU 0–OAK 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 5 | PHI at KC Phillies at Royals | PHI 45.1% | KC 1–PHI 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jun 18 | BAL at SEA Orioles at Mariners | BAL 45.1% | SEA 3–BAL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Sep 26 | PIT at DET Pirates at Tigers | DET 45.1% | DET 4–PIT 3 | Injuries Pirates healthier (5 out, 0 doubtful) vs Tigers (13 out, 0 doubtful) |
| Thu, Aug 6 | DET at SEA Tigers at Mariners | DET 45.1% | SEA 0–DET 11 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Aug 5 | DET at SEA Tigers at Mariners | DET 45.1% | SEA 0–DET 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 18 | STL at ARI Cardinals at Diamondbacks | STL 45.1% | ARI 4–STL 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | BAL at DET Orioles at Tigers | BAL 45.1% | DET 9–BAL 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 27 | BAL at DET Orioles at Tigers | BAL 45.1% | DET 5–BAL 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, May 28 | LAA at DET Angels at Tigers | LAA 45.1% | DET 1–LAA 7 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, May 24 | HOU at CHC Astros at Cubs | HOU 45.1% | CHC 5–HOU 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, May 23 | HOU at CHC Astros at Cubs | HOU 45.1% | CHC 0–HOU 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Aug 7 | CLE at CWS Guardians at Chicago White Sox | CLE 45.1% | CWS 2–CLE 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Aug 6 | NYM at CLE Mets at Guardians | NYM 45.1% | CLE 6–NYM 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Aug 6 | LAA at BAL Angels at Orioles | LAA 45.1% | BAL 1–LAA 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Aug 5 | STL at NYY Cardinals at Yankees | STL 45.1% | NYY 1–STL 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Aug 5 | NYM at CLE Mets at Guardians | NYM 45.1% | CLE 5–NYM 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Aug 4 | NYM at CLE Mets at Guardians | NYM 45.1% | CLE 2–NYM 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Aug 3 | STL at NYY Cardinals at Yankees | STL 45.1% | NYY 7–STL 13 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | BOS at LAD Red Sox at Dodgers | BOS 45.1% | LAD 4–BOS 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | NYY at CHC Yankees at Cubs | NYY 45.1% | CHC 1–NYY 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | MIA at NYM Marlins at Mets | MIA 45.1% | NYM 0–MIA 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | CWS at TB Chicago White Sox at Rays | CWS 45.1% | TB 1–CWS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Aug 2 | BOS at LAD Red Sox at Dodgers | BOS 45.1% | LAD 2–BOS 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | MIA at NYM Marlins at Mets | MIA 45.1% | NYM 2–MIA 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Aug 1 | BOS at LAD Red Sox at Dodgers | BOS 45.1% | LAD 4–BOS 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | MIA at NYM Marlins at Mets | MIA 45.1% | NYM 2–MIA 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | CWS at TB Chicago White Sox at Rays | CWS 45.1% | TB 1–CWS 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 31 | NYY at CHC Yankees at Cubs | NYY 45.1% | CHC 0–NYY 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 29 | ATL at NYM Braves at Mets | ATL 45.1% | NYM 0–ATL 1 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 28 | NYY at CWS Yankees at Chicago White Sox | NYY 45.1% | CWS 2–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Mon, Jul 27 | NYY at CWS Yankees at Chicago White Sox | NYY 45.1% | CWS 5–NYY 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | LAD at NYM Dodgers at Mets | LAD 45.1% | NYM 3–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | HOU at CWS Astros at Chicago White Sox | HOU 45.1% | CWS 1–HOU 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sat, Jul 25 | NYY at PHI Yankees at Phillies | NYY 45.1% | PHI 1–NYY 3 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | HOU at CWS Astros at Chicago White Sox | HOU 45.1% | CWS 5–HOU 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Fri, Jul 24 | LAD at NYM Dodgers at Mets | LAD 45.1% | NYM 2–LAD 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Thu, Jul 23 | CWS at TEX Chicago White Sox at Rangers | CWS 45.1% | TEX 2–CWS 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | LAD at PHI Dodgers at Phillies | LAD 45.1% | PHI 5–LAD 9 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Wed, Jul 22 | PIT at NYY Pirates at Yankees | PIT 45.1% | NYY 3–PIT 5 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | NYM at MIL Mets at Brewers | NYM 45.1% | MIL 0–NYM 4 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | LAD at PHI Dodgers at Phillies | LAD 45.1% | PHI 1–LAD 2 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Tue, Jul 21 | CWS at TEX Chicago White Sox at Rangers | CWS 45.1% | TEX 3–CWS 10 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | NYM at PHI Mets at Phillies | NYM 45.1% | PHI 1–NYM 6 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
| Sun, Jul 19 | LAD at NYY Dodgers at Yankees | LAD 45.1% | NYY 2–LAD 8 | Home Field Advantage Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available) |
Showing 201–250 of 860 surprises