St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees
New York Yankees 71% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Yankees:
- Defensive Efficiency. Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Cardinals (4.6 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage. Yankees are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency. Yankees offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cardinals defeated the Yankees 3-1.
Our model predicted the Yankees would win with 71% confidence, but the Cardinals pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Yankees and was a major factor: Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Cardinals (4.6 RA/G)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Yankees and was a notable factor: Yankees are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Yankees and was a contributing factor: Yankees offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cardinals won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Yankees
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Yankees
- Recent FormFavors New York Yankees
- ELO RatingFavors New York Yankees
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Yankees pitching/defense (3.7 RA/G) better than Cardinals (4.6 RA/G)
Offensive Efficiency
Yankees offense (4.6 R/G) outpaces Cardinals (4.5 R/G)
Recent Form
Yankees (91-67) in better form than Cardinals (77-81)
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Cardinals
Yankees
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Yankees has a 71% win probability, while Cardinals has a 29% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York.